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Capital flows, money supply and property prices: The case of China

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  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  • Tian, Lina

Abstract

This article examines the interaction among capital flows, money supply and property prices with a focus of Chinese economy by using a vector auto-regression (VAR) estimation as an analytical framework. The key research questions were, first, whether money supply has been determined independently from capital flows, and then which factor, capital flows or money supply, has given a dominant effect on property prices. The contributions of this study are to investigate the impacts on property prices jointly from capital flows as an external factor and from money supply as a domestic factor, and to count on the differences in the trends in property prices of seventy regional cities in China. The main findings through the VAR estimations were as follows. First, domestic money supply has been determined exclusively from external capital flows through the authority’s perfect sterilization of foreign-exchange-market intervention. Second, the main contributor to property prices’ movement has been domestic money supply rather than external capital flows. Third, some deviations of property prices from the trend in money supply were found in big cities and/or coastal advanced cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Tian, Lina, 2017. "Capital flows, money supply and property prices: The case of China," MPRA Paper 80730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80730
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80730/1/MPRA_paper_80730.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
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    4. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2009. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 323-348, September.
    6. repec:cii:cepiie:2015-q1-141-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Money supply; Property prices; China; Seventy reginal cities; Vector auto-regression estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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