Understanding Commercial Real Estate: Just How Different from Housing Is It?
Recent sharp declines in owner-occupied housing prices naturally raise the question of whether something similar will happen to income-producing properties. It already has based on the nearly 60% decline in the share prices of publicly-traded, commercial property firms from their peak in early 2007. The core model of spatial equilibrium in urban economics suggests this should not be a surprise, as it shows that both real estate sectors are driven by common fundamentals, which should make them perform similarly. On the other hand, stronger limits to arbitrage in housing suggest wider swings in prices unrelated to fundamentals are feasible in that property sector. The data find many more similarities than differences across the two real estate sectors. The simple correlation between appreciation rates on owner-occupied housing and commercial real estate is nearly 40%. Both sectors also exhibit similar time series patterns in their price appreciation, with there being persistence across individual years and mean reversion over longer periods. Commercial real estate capital structure looks to be quite weak due to high leverage combined with strong mean reversion in prices. The aggregate loan-to-value ratio on income-producing properties is about 75%. Estimated mean reversion in price appreciation of at least 25% over relatively short horizons suggests that normal change from the recent peak will leave little or no equity on average to cushion against any future negative shocks.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, . "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997.
" The Limits of Arbitrage,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
- Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006.
NBER Working Papers
12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-78, December.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, .
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Hong, Harrison & Scheinkman, José & Xiong, Wei, 2008.
"Advisors and asset prices: A model of the origins of bubbles,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 268-287, August.
- Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Advisors and Asset Prices: A Model of the Origins of Bubbles," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001003, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Harrison Hong & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2007. "Advisors and Asset Prices: A Model of the Origins of Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 13504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
- Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005.
"Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles,"
122247000000000861, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Gyourko, Joseph & Kahn, Matthew & Tracy, Joseph, 1999. "Quality of life and environmental comparisons," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1413-1454 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.