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Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data

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  • Ingo Geishecker
  • Thomas Siedler

Abstract

There is a large body of literature analyzing the relationship between objective economic conditions and voting behavior, but there is very little evidence of how perceived economic insecurity impacts on political preferences. Using seventeen years of household panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we examine whether job loss fears impact on individuals' party identification. Consistent with the deprivation theory, we find strong and robust evidence that subjective job loss fears foster affinity for parties at the far right-wing of the political spectrum. The effects are broadly comparable in direction and magnitude with the ones from objective unemployment and being out of the labor force. However, our empirical estimates do not suggest that job loss fears result in people withdrawing their support from political parties altogether or increasingly identify with extremist left-wing parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingo Geishecker & Thomas Siedler, 2012. "Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 511, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
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    3. Andrew J. Oswald & Nattavudh Powdthavee, 2010. "Daughters and Left-Wing Voting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 213-227, May.
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    6. Armin Falk & Andreas Kuhn & Josef Zweimüller, 2011. "Unemployment and Right‐wing Extremist Crime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 260-285, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    job insecurity; party identification; prospective voting; economic worries;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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