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Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing

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  • Grosjean, Pauline
  • Masera, Federico
  • Yousaf, Hasin

Abstract

Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers towards racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015-2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among police officers who were initially more stringent towards Black compared to White drivers, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers who were initially more stringent towards Black drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Grosjean, Pauline & Masera, Federico & Yousaf, Hasin, 2022. "Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing," CEPR Discussion Papers 15691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15691
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    2. Hanemaaijer, Kyra & Ketel, Nadine & Marie, Olivier, 2024. "Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 17396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Mastrorocco, Nicola & Ornaghi, Arianna, 2020. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 500, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Ann L. Owen & Andrew Wei, 2024. "Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 238-258, June.
    5. Massimo Pulejo, 2023. "Pro-Social Backlash: The Effect of Far-Right Success on Voluntary Welfare Provision," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23214, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Aksoy, Billur & Chadd, Ian & Koh, Boon Han, 2023. "Sexual identity, gender, and anticipated discrimination in prosocial behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Manzoni, Elena & Murard, Elie & Quercia, Simone & Tonini, Sara, 2024. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 17017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Billur Aksoy & Ian Chadd & Boon Han Koh, 2022. "(Anticipated) Discrimination against Sexual Minorities in Prosocial Domains," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-08, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    9. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Giorgio Gulino & Federico Masera, 2023. "Contagious Dishonesty: Corruption Scandals and Supermarket Theft," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 218-251, October.
    11. Avner Seror, 2021. "Social Roles," Working Papers halshs-03234653, HAL.
    12. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    13. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Police stops; Political campaign; Racial bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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