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Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Shamena Anwar

    (Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Hanming Fang

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We develop a model of a Parole Board contemplating whether to grant parole release to a prisoner who has finished serving their minimum sentence. The model implies a simple outcome test for racial prejudice robust to the inframarginality problem. Our test involves running simple regressions of whether a prisoner recidivates on the exposure time to the risk of recidivism and its square, using only the sample of prisoners who are granted parole release strictly between their minimum and maximum sentences and separately by race. If the co- efficient estimates on the exposure time term differ by race, then there is evidence of racial prejudice against the racial group with the smaller coefficient estimate. We implement our test for prejudice using data from Pennsylvania from January 1996 to December 31, 2001. Although we find racial differences in time served, we find no evidence for racial prejudice on the part of the Parole Board based on our outcome test.

Suggested Citation

  • Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang, 2012. "Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Ilyana Kuziemko, 2013. "How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 371-424.
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    Cited by:

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    3. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Crystal S Yang, 2018. "Racial Bias in Bail Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1885-1932.
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    6. Pauline Grosjean & Federico Masera & Hasin Yousaf, 2023. "Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 413-463.
    7. Brendon McConnell & Kegon Teng Kok Tan & Mariyana Zapryanova, 2023. "How do Parole Boards Respond to Large, Societal Shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks," Working Papers 2023-010, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    8. Ilic, Dragan, 2013. "Prejudice in Swiss Naturalization Decisions: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79953, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Ili, Dragan, 2016. "Prejudice in Naturalization Decisions: Theory and Evidence," Working papers 2016/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    10. Ilić, Dragan, 2018. "Prejudice in naturalization decisions: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Racial Prejudice; Statistical Discrimination; Outcome Test; Parole; Recidivism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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