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Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing

Author

Listed:
  • Pauline Grosjean
  • Federico Masera
  • Hasin Yousaf

Abstract

Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015–2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Grosjean & Federico Masera & Hasin Yousaf, 2023. "Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 413-463.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:1:p:413-463.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjac037
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Gallice & Edoardo Grillo, 2022. "Legitimize through Endorsement," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 680 JEL Classification: C, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Kyra Hanemaaijer & Nadine Ketel & Olivier Marie, 2024. "Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-065/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Gallice, Andrea & Grillo, Edoardo, 2025. "Shifting social norms through endorsements," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Ann L. Owen & Andrew Wei, 2024. "Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 238-258, June.
    5. Aksoy, Billur & Chadd, Ian & Koh, Boon Han, 2023. "Sexual identity, gender, and anticipated discrimination in prosocial behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Billur Aksoy & Ian Chadd & Boon Han Koh, 2022. "(Anticipated) Discrimination against Sexual Minorities in Prosocial Domains," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-08, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    7. Sardoschau, Sulin & Gulino, Giorgio & Masera, Federico, 2025. "Identity Under Scrutiny: Media Attention and Rule Compliance," IZA Discussion Papers 17888, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Avner Seror, 2021. "Social Roles," Working Papers halshs-03234653, HAL.
    10. Anna D’Ambrosio & Roberto Leombruni & Tiziano Razzolini, 2025. "Does far-right populism affect immigrants’ working conditions?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-31, March.
    11. Mathieu Couttenier & Sophie Hatte & Lucile Laugerette & Tommaso Sonno, 2025. "Dear Brothers and Sisters: Pope's Speeches and the Dynamics of Conflict in Africa," Working Papers hal-05029770, HAL.
    12. Nicola Mastrorocco & Arianna Ornaghi, 2025. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 285-318, May.
    13. Massimo Pulejo, 2023. "Pro-Social Backlash: The Effect of Far-Right Success on Voluntary Welfare Provision," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23214, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Manzoni, Elena & Murard, Elie & Quercia, Simone & Tonini, Sara, 2024. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 17017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Pulejo, Massimo, 2025. "Private response to exclusionary welfare policy: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    16. Güneş Aşık & Naci H. Mocan, 2024. "The Signaling Value of Government Action: The Effect of Istanbul Convention on Female Murders," NBER Working Papers 33169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Arya, Yatish & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash, 2025. "When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    18. Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Guryan, Jonathan & Park, Kyung H., 2025. "Consumer sentiment towards Asians in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    19. Adrjan, Pawel & Gromadzki, Jan, 2025. "Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions," IZA Discussion Papers 18217, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Giorgio Gulino & Federico Masera, 2023. "Contagious Dishonesty: Corruption Scandals and Supermarket Theft," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 218-251, October.
    21. Han, Jiajun & Zhang, Yuan, 2025. "Education and tolerance towards Homosexuality—Evidence from China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    22. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    23. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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