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When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages

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  • Arya, Yatish
  • Bhatiya, Apurav Yash

Abstract

Does exposure to conflict harm the electoral prospects of the incumbent government or generate a “rally around the flag” effect? Additionally, what role do politicians and media play in converting conflict exposure into votes? Using exogenous variation in conflict exposure in the home constituencies of deceased soldiers in India and a difference-in-differences regression, we find an increase in incumbent vote share in these constituencies, indicating a significant “rally around the flag” effect. Only conflicts receiving heightened attention in political speeches and media coverage exhibit this effect. These findings highlight the salience of political messages in shaping voter responses to conflict.

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  • Arya, Yatish & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash, 2025. "When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:245:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725000544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105356
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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