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The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States

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Listed:
  • Thomas Fujiwara

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • Karsten Müller

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Carlo Schwarz

    (Università Bocconi)

Abstract

We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter’s rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congressional elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and a text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter’s relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fujiwara & Karsten Müller & Carlo Schwarz, 2022. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 2022-18, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2022-18
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    File URL: http://www.princeton.edu/~fujiwara/papers/SocialMediaAndElections.pdf
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    3. Julia Cage & Edgard Dewitte, 2021. "It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03384143, HAL.
    4. Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George & Stalinski, Mateusz, 2022. "Do social media ads matter for political behavior? A field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Julia Cage & Edgard Dewitte, 2021. "It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 150 Years of British Campaign Spending," Sciences Po publications 2021-08, Sciences Po.
    6. Jiménez-Durán, Rafael, 2022. "The economics of content moderation: Theory and experimental evidence from hate speech on Twitter," Working Papers 324, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    7. Lu, Runjing & Sheng, Sophie Yanying, 2022. "How racial animus forms and spreads: Evidence from the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 82-98.
    8. Luca Braghieri & Ro'ee Levy & Alexey Makarin, 2022. "Social Media and Mental Health," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3660-3693, November.
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    10. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.
    11. Tianyi Wang, 2021. "Media, Pulpit, and Populist Persuasion: Evidence from Father Coughlin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 3064-3092, September.
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    13. Artís, Annalí Casanueva & Avetian, Vladimir & Sardoschau, Sulin & Saxena, Kavya, 2022. "Social Media and the Broadening of Social Movements: Evidence from Black Lives Matter," IZA Discussion Papers 15812, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Rafael Jimenez-Duran, 2021. "The Economics of Content Moderation: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Hate Speech on Twitter," Natural Field Experiments 00754, The Field Experiments Website.
    15. Jaschke, Philipp & Sardoschau, Sulin & Tabellini, Marco, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Giacomo De Luca & Thilo R. Huning & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2021. "Britain has had enough of experts? Social networks and the Brexit referendum," Discussion Papers 21/01, Department of Economics, University of York.

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    Keywords

    voting behavior; elections;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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