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Identifying the Effect of Persuasion

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  • Sung Jae Jun
  • Sokbae Lee

Abstract

This paper examines a commonly used measure of persuasion whose precise interpretation has been obscure in the literature. By using the potential outcome framework, we define the causal persuasion rate by a proper conditional probability of taking the action of interest with a persuasive message conditional on not taking the action without the message. We then formally study identification under empirically relevant data scenarios and show that the commonly adopted measure generally does not estimate—but often overstates—the causal rate of persuasion. We discuss several new parameters of interest and provide practical methods for causal inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2023. "Identifying the Effect of Persuasion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2032-2058.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/724114
    DOI: 10.1086/724114
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    Cited by:

    1. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2024. "Causal Inference Under Outcome-Based Sampling with Monotonicity Assumptions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 998-1009, July.
    2. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2020. "Causal inference in case-control studies," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Galasso, Vincenzo & Morelli, Massimo & Nannicini, Tommaso & Stanig, Piero, 2024. "The Populist Dynamic: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Countering Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16796, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Wenlong Ji & Lihua Lei & Asher Spector, 2023. "Model-Agnostic Covariate-Assisted Inference on Partially Identified Causal Effects," Papers 2310.08115, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    5. Zeyang Yu, 2024. "A Binary IV Model for Persuasion: Profiling Persuasion Types among Compliers," Papers 2411.16906, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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