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Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Thiemo Fetzer

    (University of Warwick [Coventry], Universität Bonn = University of Bonn)

  • Pedro Cl Souza

    (QMUL - Queen Mary University of London)

  • Oliver Vanden Eynde

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Austin L Wright

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

How domestic constituents respond to signals of weakness in foreign wars remains an important question in international relations. In this paper, we study the impact of battlefield casualties and media coverage on public demand for war termination. To identify the effect of troop fatalities, we leverage the otherwise exogenous timing of survey collection across 26,776 respondents from nine members of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Quasi-experimental evidence demonstrates that battlefield casualties increase coverage of the Afghan conflict and public demand for withdrawal, with heterogeneous effects consistent with an original theoretical argument. Evidence from a survey experiment replicates the main results. To shed light on the media mechanism, we leverage a news pressure design and find that major sporting matches occurring around the time of battlefield casualties drive down subsequent coverage, and significantly weaken the effect of casualties on support for war termination. These results highlight the crucial role that media play in shaping public support for foreign military interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro Cl Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L Wright, 2023. "Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions," Working Papers halshs-04343919, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04343919
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04343919v1
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L Wright, 2024. "Team production on the battlefield: Evidence from NATO in Afghanistan," PSE Working Papers halshs-04610715, HAL.
    3. Arya, Yatish & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash, 2025. "When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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