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Terrorism, media coverage and education: Evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya

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  • Alfano, Marco
  • Goerlach, Joseph-Simon

Abstract

We examine how terrorism alters the demand for education through perceived risks and returns by relating terrorist attacks to media signal coverage and schooling in Kenya. Exploiting geographical and temporal variation in wireless signal coverage and attacks, we establish that media access reinforces negative effects of terrorism on schooling. These effects are confirmed when we instrument both media signal and the incidence of attacks. For households with media access, we also find a significant relation between media content and schooling and a significant effect of attacks on self-reported fears and concerns. Based on these insights, we estimate a simple structural model where heterogeneous households experiencing terrorism form beliefs about risks and returns to education. We exploit the same quasi-experimental variation as in the reduced form analysis to identify how media change subjective expectations. The results show that households with media access significantly over-estimate fatality risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Marco & Goerlach, Joseph-Simon, 2022. "Terrorism, media coverage and education: Evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," CEPR Discussion Papers 17322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17322
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    2. Vesco, P. & Baliki, G. & Brück, T. & Döring, S. & Eriksson, A. & Fjelde, H. & Guha-Sapir, D. & Hall, J. & Knutsen, C. H. & Leis, M. R. & Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Rudolfsen, I. & Swain, A., 2024. "The Impacts of Armed Conflict on Human Development," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2462, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
    4. Vesco, Paola & Baliki, Ghassan & Brück, Tilman & Döring, Stefan & Eriksson, Anneli & Fjelde, Hanne & Guha-Sapir, Debarati & Hall, Jonathan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Leis, Maxine R. & Mueller, Hannes & , 2025. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Timothy Besley & Thiemo Fetzer & Hannes Mueller, 2023. "How Big Is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10619, CESifo.
    6. Gautier, Thomas, 2025. "From missing brothers to educated sisters: The effects of victimization during the Rwandan genocide," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318207, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Arya, Yatish & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash, 2025. "When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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