The Signaling Value of Government Action: The Effect of Istanbul Convention on Female Murders

We analyze the expressive content of government action, focusing on the Istanbul Convention–an international treaty aimed at protecting women against violence, signed and ratified by 39 countries. In 2021 the Turkish government withdrew from the Convention, 10 years after signing it. Although the withdrawal did not alter existing laws, women's rights advocates viewed it as a signal of increased tolerance for violence against women. Using four datasets on domestic violence, and female murders, including one from the police, we investigate the impacts of both Turkey’s exit from the Convention and its initial entry. Analyses, including a difference-in-difference model using male homicides as control, show that the withdrawal resulted in about 65 additional female murders per year, primarily committed by intimate partners. The effect is more pronounced in provinces where the long-governing religious-conservative coalition parties have stronger voter support and in provinces with lower education levels. Conversely, Turkey's entry into the Convention in 2011 had the opposite impact, leading to a decrease in female murders. The signing of the Convention, which acted as a normative signal against violence, and the subsequent enactment of comprehensive legislation strengthening deterrence, had distinct effects. The signaling effect of the Entry was more significant in the same provinces that reacted more strongly to the Exit: those with lower education levels, stronger support for the governing party, and the Eastern region of the country. These findings support the premise that government actions are interpreted as signals by society.