Electoral effects of integrating forced migrants: Evidence from a Southern Country

How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? We assess how a regularization program which facilitated the temporal economic integration of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian voters. This is done by comparing the election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for the program, before and after its implementation. Our findings show negligible impacts of the program on native voting behavior. We also conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voters’ response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views towards migrants. Hence, voters’ indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. Instead, theoretical and qualitative evidence suggests that it may be potentially explained by (1) the absence of negative economic effects of the program, (2) the low media and political salience of the program, (3) the cultural proximity between Colombia and Venezuela, and (4) the stabilization of Venezuelan inflows into Colombia after 2018.