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Two and a Half Million Syrian Refugees, Tasks and Capital Intensity

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  • Yusuf Emre Akgunduz
  • Huzeyfe Torun

Abstract

We investigate how the rapid increase in the low-skilled labor supply induced by the inflow of 2.5 million Syrian refugees changed the tasks performed by native workers and the capital intensity of firms in Turkey. We use both survey and administrative data to estimate the effects. The results based on the Labor Force Survey suggest that the inflow of refugees increased natives� task complexity, reducing the intensity of manual tasks, and raising the intensity of abstract tasks. This effect is driven by highly educated and young natives. Exploiting the administrative firm data that contains the entirety of firms in the country, we find that manufacturing firms reduced their capital intensity and investments. Reduction in capital intensity and investment is largely driven by smaller sized firms. We conclude that tasks provided by Syrian refugees are substitutes for manual tasks and capital inputs in production, and complements to more complex tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Emre Akgunduz & Huzeyfe Torun, 2019. "Two and a Half Million Syrian Refugees, Tasks and Capital Intensity," Working Papers 1923, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1923
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2019/19-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Mevlude Akbulut‐Yuksel & Naci Mocan & Semih Tumen & Belgi Turan, 2024. "The crime effect of refugees," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 472-508, March.
    2. Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Handling Irregularities Resulting from the 2014 Revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-25.
    3. Mann, Katja & Pozzoli, Dario, 2022. "Automation and Low-Skill Labor," IZA Discussion Papers 15791, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Lukas Delgado-Prieto, 2024. "Immigration, wages, and employment under informal labor markets," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-34, June.
    5. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Bağır, Yusuf Kenan & Cılasun, Seyit Mümin & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Consequences of a massive refugee influx on firm performance and market structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Olivieri, Sergio & Ortega, Francesc & Rivadeneira, Ana & Carranza, Eliana, 2020. "Shoring up Economic Refugees: Venezuelan Migrants in the Ecuadorian Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 13502, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Zhao, Nan & Liu, Xiaojie & Zhang, Zizhe, 2022. "Does competition from the informal sector affect firms’ energy intensity? Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 130-142.
    9. Mann, Katja & Pozzoli, Dario, 2024. "Robots and immigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    10. Christopher F. Baum & Hans Lööf & Andreas Stephan & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2024. "Estimating the Wage Premia of Refugee Immigrants: Lessons from Sweden," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(4), pages 562-597, August.
    11. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 14267, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. David Zuchowski, 2025. "Migration response to an immigration shock: evidence from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 21-40.
    13. Çakır, Selcen & Erbay, Elif & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2021. "Syrian Refugees and Human Capital Accumulation of Native Children in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 14972, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.
    15. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "Development level of hosting areas and the impact of refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Costanza Naguib, 2023. "Is the Impact of Opening the Borders Heterogeneous?," Diskussionsschriften dp2312, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    17. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023. "Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye note for the 2023 Emerging Markets Deputy Governors Meeting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 297-310, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Siu, Jade & Sterck, Olivier & Rodgers, Cory, 2023. "The freedom to choose: Theory and quasi-experimental evidence on cash transfer restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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