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The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan

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  • Ali Fakih
  • May Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country’s labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly three million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates, employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and economic activity at the level of governorates. The vector autoregressive methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results are verified through a set of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Fakih & May Ibrahim, 2016. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 64-86, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:1:p:64-86
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1055936
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    1. repec:gam:jscscx:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:129-:d:116812 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2018. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon," Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    3. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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