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Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany

Author

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  • Weber, Enzo

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weigand, Roland

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"This study investigates impacts of migration on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing refugee and non-refugee immigration. We propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variable techniques. We find that non-refugee immigration has more beneficial medium-run effects on GDP and the labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2016. "Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201620
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. O. Damette & V. Fromentin, 2013. "Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: a panel cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2295-2304, June.
    2. Brücker, Herbert & Hauptmann, Andreas & Jahn, Elke J. & Upward, Richard, 2014. "Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark, Germany and the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 205-225.
    3. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    4. D'Amuri, Francesco & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Peri, Giovanni, 2010. "The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 550-570, May.
    5. Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly & Christophe Rault, 2013. "Immigration, Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(4), pages 399-420, December.
    6. Bossler, Mario & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2016. "Employment effects of the new German minimum wage : evidence from establishment-level micro data," IAB Discussion Paper 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    8. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
    9. Ruist, Joakim, 2013. "The labor market impact of refugee immigration in Sweden 1999–2007," SULCIS Working Papers 2013:1, Stockholm University, Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wido Geis & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 12, pages 395-419 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Kalena E. Cortes, 2004. "Are Refugees Different from Economic Immigrants? Some Empirical Evidence on the Heterogeneity of Immigrant Groups in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 465-480, May.
    12. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    13. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November.
    14. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 2, pages 35-80 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    16. Stefan Bach & Herbert Brücker & Peter Haan & Agnese Romiti & Kristina van Deuverden & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Refugee Integration: A Worthwile Investment," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 7(3/4), pages 33-43.
    17. Kiguchi, Takehiro & Mountford, Andrew, 2013. "The macroeconomics of immigration," MPRA Paper 45517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Kristina van Deuverden & Björn Fischer & Herbert Brücker & Agnese Romiti & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Abschätzung von Effekten der Integration von Flüchtlingen: Kurzexpertise für das Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 117, number pbk117, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Einwanderung; Asylbewerber; Arbeitslosenquote; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Lohn; Flüchtlinge;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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