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General equilibrium effects of immigration in Germany: Search and matching approach

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  • Zainab Iftikhar

    (Universite Catholique de Louvain)

  • Anna Zaharieva

    (Bielefeld University)

Abstract

In this study we develop and calibrate a search and matching model of the German labour market and analyse the impact of a 25% increase in immigration observed in the period 2012–2016. Our model has two production sectors (tradable manufacturing and non-tradable services), two skill groups and two ethnic groups of workers (natives and immigrants). Moreover, we allow for the possibility of vertical skill mismatch of high skill workers, endogenous price setting in the non-tradable sector and fiscal redistribution policy. We find that immigrant workers are underrepresented in services compared to manufacturing, so there is only a moderate output increase in the production of services in response to immigration. This output increase is insufficient to cover the associated higher demand for services, which generates a higher price in this sector and stimulates job creation. Workers in services gain welfare but there is a negative effect on the real income of workers in manufacturing. Our results show that recent immigration to Germany, including refugees, has a moderate negative effect on the welfare of low skill workers in manufacturing (−1.2%), but all other worker groups are gaining from immigration, with high skill service employees gaining the most (+6.3%). The average effect of recent immigration after we account for changes in the fiscal budget is estimated at +3.0% but there is larger inequality in the post-immigration steady state. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Zainab Iftikhar & Anna Zaharieva, 2019. "General equilibrium effects of immigration in Germany: Search and matching approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 245-276, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.07.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Docquier, Frédéric & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2019. "Brain drain, informality and inequality: A search-and-matching model for sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 109-125.
    2. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballe & Eugenia Vella, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity and Migration: A Missing Link," Working Papers 2019009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    3. Busch, Christopher & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2020. "Should Germany have built a new wall? Macroeconomic lessons from the 2015-18 refugee wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-55.
    4. Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2020. "Winners and Losers of Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 13600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Zainab Iftikhar & Anna Zaharieva, 2019. "General equilibrium effects of immigration in Germany: Search and matching approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 245-276, January.
    6. Franz Hamann & Cesar Anzola & Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Juan Carlos Castro-Fernandez & Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander Guarín & Juan C Mendez-Vizcaino & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Mario A. Ramos-Ve, 2021. "Monetary Policy Response to a Migration Shock: An Analysis for a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 1153, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Alaverdyan, Sevak & Zaharieva, Anna, 2019. "Immigration, Social Networks and Occupational Mismatch," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 612, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Matteo Cacciatore & Giuseppe Fiori & Nora Traum, 2020. "Hours and Employment Over the Business Cycle: A Structural Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 240-262, January.
    9. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballé & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Should I stay or should I go? Austerity, unemployment and migration," Working Papers 1839, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Search frictions; Immigration; General; Equilibrium; Redistribution; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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