IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aue/wpaper/2313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Tightening and Skills Mismatch

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Andreas Vasilatos

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Eugenia Vella

Abstract

The paper documents a new link between fiscal tightening and the vertical skills mismatch rate (share of over-qualified workers). Using data for Greece, where this rate exceeds one-third, and a variety of structural Bayesian vector auto regressions and identification strategies, we show that fiscal tightening increases mismatch. We then introduce the latter in a DSGE model with heterogeneous households and labor frictions. In line with the data, a fiscal tightening shock raises the mismatch rate in the model. This result holds for production function specifications both with and without capital-skill complementarity (CSC).

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Andreas Vasilatos & Eugenia Vella, 2023. "Fiscal Tightening and Skills Mismatch," DEOS Working Papers 2313, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/2023.Fiscal.Tightening.and.Skills.Mismatch.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    2. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia, 2019. "Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatch in Europe: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12346, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Xiangbo Liu & Theodore Palivos & Xiaomeng Zhang, 2017. "Immigration, Skill Heterogeneity, And Qualification Mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1231-1264, July.
    4. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    5. Anneleen Vandeplas & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2019. "Skills Mismatch and Productivity in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 100, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Juan J. Dolado & Gergő Motyovszki & Evi Pappa, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 292-332, April.
    7. Acemoglu, Daron, 2001. "Good Jobs versus Bad Jobs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    9. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2012. "Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, And Labor Force Participation: Theory And Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1205-1228, November.
    10. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On Employment And The Real Wage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 217-244, February.
    11. Pagoulatos, George, 2018. "Greece after the bailouts: assessment of a qualified failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91957, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2015. "The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 19-42.
    13. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    14. James Albrecht & Susan Vroman, 2002. "A Matching Model with Endogenous Skill Requirements," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 283-305, February.
    15. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    16. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Regis Barnichon & Yanos Zylberberg, 2019. "Underemployment and the Trickle-Down of Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 40-78, April.
    20. Chassamboulli Andri, 2011. "Cyclical Upgrading of Labor and Employment Differences across Skill Groups," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, May.
    21. Zainab Iftikhar & Anna Zaharieva, 2019. "General equilibrium effects of immigration in Germany: Search and matching approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 245-276, January.
    22. George Pagoulatos, 2018. "Greece after the Bailouts: Assessment of a Qualified Failure," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 130, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    23. Bandeira, Guilherme & Caballé, Jordi & Vella, Eugenia, 2022. "Emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    24. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    25. Fotiou, Alexandra, 2022. "Non-linearities in fiscal policy: The role of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    26. Stephen Machin & John Van Reenen, 1998. "Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1215-1244.
    27. Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
    28. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    29. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    30. Stelios Sakkas & Petros Varthalitis, 2021. "Public Debt Consolidation and its Distributional Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 131-174, September.
    31. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Skill shortages and skill mismatch in Europe: A review of the literature," EIB Working Papers 2019/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    32. Pontus Rendahl, 2016. "Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1189-1224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Liontos & Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Eugenia Vella, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of Skills Mismatch in the Presence of Emigration," DEOS Working Papers 2314, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    2. Steinar Holden & Victoria Sparrman, 2018. "Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(1), pages 124-158, January.
    3. Alessio Moro & Omar Rachedi, 2022. "The Changing Structure Of Government Consumption Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1323, August.
    4. Xiangbo Liu & Theodore Palivos & Xiaomeng Zhang, 2017. "Immigration, Skill Heterogeneity, And Qualification Mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1231-1264, July.
    5. Bandeira, Guilherme & Caballé, Jordi & Vella, Eugenia, 2022. "Emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Bermperoglou, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2017. "The government wage bill and private activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-47.
    7. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballe & Eugenia Vella, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity and Migration: A Missing Link," Working Papers 2019009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    8. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Paradisi, Matteo & Barbiero, Omar, 2017. "The effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Tafuro, Andrea, 2023. "Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    11. E. Moreno-Galbis & Henri Sneessens, 2007. "Low-skilled unemployment, capital-skill complementarity and embodied technical progress," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 73(3), pages 241-272.
    12. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.
    14. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballé & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Should I stay or should I go? Austerity, unemployment and migration," Working Papers 1839, Banco de España.
    15. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballe & Eugenia Vella, 2020. "Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in a Depression," DEOS Working Papers 2035, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    16. Jackson, Paul, 2023. "Equilibrium underemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    18. Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2021. "Fiscal Consolidation Programs And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 405-460, February.
    19. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    20. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2011. "The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-466, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    skills mismatch; fiscal shocks; capital-skill complementarity; SVAR; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ekaterini Glynou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diauegr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.