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Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: pains and gains foregone?

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  • Felbermayr, Gabriel J.
  • Geis, Wido
  • Kohler, Wilhelm K.

Abstract

Many European countries restrict immigration from new EU member countries. The rationale is to avoid adverse wage and employment effects. We quantify these effects for Germany. Following Borjas (2003), we estimate a structural model of labor demand, based on elasticities of substitution between workers with different experience levels and education. We allow for unemployment which we model in a price-wage-setting framework. Simulating a counterfactual scenario without restrictions for migration from new EU members countries, we find moderate negative wage effects, combined with increased unemployment for some types of workers. Wage-setting mitigates wage cuts.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Geis, Wido & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2008. "Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: pains and gains foregone?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:7443
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    1. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2006. "The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0608, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. George J. Borjas, 1995. "The Economic Benefits from Immigration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
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    6. Abdurrahman Aydemir & George J. Borjas, 2007. "Cross-Country Variation in the Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 663-708, June.
    7. Borjas, George J & Freeman, Richard B & Katz, Lawrence, 1996. "Searching for the Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 246-251, May.
    8. D'Amuri, Francesco & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Peri, Giovanni, 2010. "The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 550-570, May.
    9. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Immigration and Native Welfare," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 10, pages 335-372 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
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    15. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    16. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 2, pages 35-80 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Gerfin & Boris Kaiser, 2010. "The Effects of Immigration on Wages: An Application of the Structural Skill-Cell Approach," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(IV), pages 709-739, December.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect ?," FSES Working Papers 436, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    4. Joël MACHADO, 2012. "On the welfare impacts of an immigration amnesty," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. D'Amuri, Francesco & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Peri, Giovanni, 2010. "The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 550-570, May.
    7. Edo Anthony, 2015. "The Impact of Immigration on Native Wages and Employment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1151-1196, July.
    8. Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2016. "Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Muysken, Joan & Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of Medium-Skilled immigration: A general equilibrium approach," MERIT Working Papers 055, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Muysken, Joan & Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "Migration, Unemployment, and Over-qualification: A Specific Factors-Model Approach," EconStor Preprints 67479, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    11. TOMIURA Eiichi & ITO Banri & MUKUNOKI Hiroshi & WAKASUGI Ryuhei, 2017. "Individual Characteristics, Behavioral Biases, and Attitudes toward Immigration: Evidence from a survey in Japan," Discussion papers 17033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Iftikhar, Zainab & Zaharieva, Anna, 2016. "General equilibrium effects of immigration in Germany: search and matching approach," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 568, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    13. Akira Shimada, 2013. "Wage Inequality and Human Capital Formation under Migration Possibilities," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3-4), pages 190-201, December.
    14. Anthony Edo & Hillel Rapoport, 2017. "Minimum Wages and the Labor Market Effects of Immigration," Working Papers 2017-12, CEPII research center.
    15. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Migranten im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt: Löhne, Arbeitslosigkeit, Erwerbsquoten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(20), pages 39-47, October.
    16. de la Rica, Sara & Glitz, Albrecht & Ortega, Francesc, 2013. "Immigration in Europe: Trends, Policies and Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 7778, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Edo, Anthony & Toubal, Farid, 2017. "Immigration and the gender wage gap," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 196-214.
    18. Anthony Edo, 2016. "How do rigid labor markets absorb immigration? Evidence from France," IZA Journal of Migration, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    19. Luca Barbone & Andrew Dabalen, 2009. "Enhancing the development impact of migration," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(6), pages 59-76.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    wages; migration;

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy

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