Evaluating the Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Analysis

Immigration continues to shape labor market dynamics, yet its gender-specific effects remain understudied. This study revisits the Mariel Boatlift, when about 125,000 Cubans arrived in Miami in 1980, increasing the local labor supply by 7%, to examine its impact on native women's labor market outcomes. While previous studies have mainly focused on wage effects among low-skilled male workers and found limited effects, the consequences for native women have been largely overlooked. This research fills this gap by examining how the influx of low-skilled immigrants affected native women's labor force participation, unemployment, wages, and hours worked. Using data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from 1976 to 1993, and applying the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) method, we find substantial declines in labor force participation and notable increase in unemployment among native women, with both low- and high-educated women experiencing adverse effects. These findings provide new evidence that immigration shocks can have broad and heterogeneous impacts across genders, complementing the literature that has largely found minimal labor market effects, particularly among men.