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Heterogeneous displacement effects of migrant labor supply - quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Scharfbillig

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Marco Weissler

    (Institut fuer Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

We provide estimates of the effect of migrant labor supply on resident employment. We exploit variation in the number of asylum seekers eligible to the suspension of a major hiring restriction implemented in a subset of German counties. Our difference-in-difference design allows us to provide evidence from a labor supply shock of migrants on local markets net of their additional spending at arrival that might mask labor market displacement effects. Despite this, we do not find a negative effect on employment growth of natives but only on other foreign residents. This also holds for unskilled employees. Therefore, our findings can be interpreted as the consequence of differential substitutability of different subgroups, where asylum seekers are substitutes to other immigrants but not natives - even when they are similarly qualified.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Scharfbillig & Marco Weissler, 2019. "Heterogeneous displacement effects of migrant labor supply - quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," Working Papers 1910, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1910
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    File URL: https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_1910.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Busch, Christopher & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2020. "Should Germany have built a new wall? Macroeconomic lessons from the 2015-18 refugee wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-55.
    2. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    3. Zainab Iftikhar & Anna Zaharieva, 2025. "Problem or Opportunity? Immigration, Job Search, Entrepreneurship and Labor Market Outcomes of Natives in Germany," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 358, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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