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Blood Diamonds, Dirty Gold and Spatial Spill-overs Measuring Conflict Dynamics in West Africa

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  • Balestri Sara
  • Maggioni Mario A.

    (DISEIS (Department of International Economics, Institutions and Development) and CSCC (Cognitive Science and Communication Research Centre), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, L.go Gemelli, 1. I-20123 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

Although conflict incidence is likely to be characterized by spatial dependence, the scientific literature on conflicts often neglects the issue thus, implicitly, assuming independence among observations. We argue that such assumption could lead to biased and inconsistent results and we provide an exemplary application to the case of the Mano River Region (MRR) in West Africa. Once we detected the existence of spatial dependence within the distribution of conflict incidence, we introduce spatial econometrics techniques in order to explore diffusion paths of violence within the region. We firstly project on a spatially disaggregated map, built as a regular grid, the conflict occurrence and several georeferenced determinants of civil conflicts. Then, we model spatial dependence through the introduction of spatial autoregressive terms on both dependent and independent variables (SAR and SD Models). Across several models, civil conflict is found steadily clustered in space with significant spill-over effects on contiguous locations. Among other determinants, natural resources – namely diamonds and gold – are confirmed as relevant drivers of conflict diffusion and show neighbouring effects since their location and proximity may affect conflict dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Balestri Sara & Maggioni Mario A., 2014. "Blood Diamonds, Dirty Gold and Spatial Spill-overs Measuring Conflict Dynamics in West Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:14:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2014-0026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sara Balestri & Mario A. Maggioni, 2021. "This Land Is My Land! Large-Scale Land Acquisitions and Conflict Events in Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 427-450, May.
    3. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Michael Denly & Michael G. Findley & Joelean Hall & Andrew Stravers & James Igoe Walsh, 2022. "Do Natural Resources Really Cause Civil Conflict? Evidence from the New Global Resources Dataset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 387-412, April.
    5. Bei, Leticia Jin, 2019. "Where does the dragon’s gift go?: Subnational distribution of China’s aid to Sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2012," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101349, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya & van der Meulen Rodgers, Yana, 2020. "Mining and Gender Gaps in India," IZA Discussion Papers 13881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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