My neighbour’s war: Spatial dependence of conflict incidence in West Africa

Although recent empirical literature acknowledges that organized violence tends to cluster geographically, the limited use of disaggregated data and of accurate spatial estimation techniques fail in explaining the spatial structure of conflict events. In this paper we analyse conflict incidence in West Africa through the provision of an illustrative case (the Mano River Region) by: (i) performing the analysis with the smallest possible sub-national disaggregated areas; (ii) taking into account the location of valuable resources (lootable diamonds and gold); and (iii) applying the most suitable spatial econometric specifications. Our results show the existence of relevant cross-border spillover effects of conflict events; and confirm that natural valuable resources are strong predictors of organized violence location. Moreover, we demonstrate that events concerning incompatibilities on government and/or territory are more strongly related to diamonds location, whereas events between no-state armed groups are indifferently connected to the location of both valuable resources.