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Ethnicity and the spread of civil war

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  • Bosker, Maarten
  • de Ree, Joppe

Abstract

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) cross-border characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosker, Maarten & de Ree, Joppe, 2014. "Ethnicity and the spread of civil war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 206-221.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:108:y:2014:i:c:p:206-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.02.002
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:deveco:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:434-447 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    3. Bluhm, Richard & Gassebner, Martin & Langlotz, Sarah & Schaudt, Paul, 2016. "Fueling conflict? : (De)escalation and bilateral aid," MERIT Working Papers 053, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 7-16.
    5. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "The geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 109-119.
    6. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    7. Carolyn Chisadza & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 201640, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Chang Woon Nam & Jan Schumacher, 2014. "Dynamics and Time Frame of Post War Recovery Required for Compensating Civil War Economic Losses," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(3), pages 79-87, August.
    9. Roberto Ezcurra & Beatriz Manotas, 2015. "Does globalization promote civil war? An empirical research," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1501, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    10. Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza & Michael Jetter & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo, 2016. "Polarized Education Levels and Civil War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6267, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:12:p:2592-2610 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chang Woon Nam & Jan Schumacher, 2013. "Dynamics and Time Scope of Post War Recovery Required for Compensating Civil War Economic Losses," CESifo Working Paper Series 4361, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2016. "Does tourism lead to peace?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 63-79.
    14. Delprato, Marcos & Akyeampong, Kwame & Sabates, Ricardo & Hernandez-Fernandez, Jimena, 2015. "On the impact of early marriage on schooling outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South West Asia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil war; Ethnicity; Spillover effects;

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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