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Civil Wars and International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Martin

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mathias Thoenig

    (CUI - Centre Universitaire d'Informatique - UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva)

Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Post-Print hal-01022359, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01022359
    DOI: 10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.2-3.541
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01022359
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

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