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A theory of regional conflict complexes

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Silve

    (ULaval - Université Laval [Québec])

  • Thierry Verdier

    (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Civil conflicts spill over into neighboring countries. This paper proposes a theory of the contagion of civil wars. Weak territorial control facilitates the emergence of a regional market for war inputs in the "porous frontier." The contagion effect is nonlinear and creates multiple equilibrium situations of regional complexes of civil conflicts. This helps explain the observed patterns of regional clustering of conflict and institutional quality, and raises identification issues in the measurement of the contagion effect. We also derive a positive spillover of civil wars: governments are sometimes in a position to avoid contagion by improving their institutions. Finally, we explore the policy implications for military intervention, and military and institutional cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Silve & Thierry Verdier, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01887066, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-01887066
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Fawaz, Mahdi & Yatié, Alhonita, 2025. "How do banks respond to violence?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Alessandro Belmonte & Désirée Teobaldelli & Davide Ticchi, 2023. "Tax morale, fiscal capacity, and war," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 445-474, June.
    3. Mercier, Marion & Silve, Arthur & Tremblay-Auger, Benjamin, 2023. "Building Reputation: Proxy Wars and Transnational Identities," IZA Discussion Papers 16340, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jean Lacroix, 2023. "Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 764-813.
    5. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2024. "The geopolitical strategy of refugee camps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Jordan Adamson, 2021. "The scope of political jurisdictions and violence: theory and evidence from Africa," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 467-490, March.
    7. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-05021482 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sebastian Cortes-Corrales & Paul M. Gorny, 2025. "How strength asymmetries shape multi-sided conflicts," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(1), pages 235-274, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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