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Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

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  • Henrik Urdal
  • Kristian Hoelscher

Abstract

By 2050, two thirds of the world's population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population. In the current article, we use a new event dataset on city-level urban social disorder, drawing upon prominent theories in the conflict literature. The dataset spans the 1960--2009 period, covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and includes data on nonviolent actions such as demonstrations and strikes and violent political actions like riots, terrorism, and armed conflict. We find that urban social disorder is associated in particular with low economic growth rates and hybrid democratic regimes, while level of development, economic inequality, large youth bulges, and economic globalization do not seem to affect levels of urban social disorder.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Urdal & Kristian Hoelscher, 2012. "Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 512-528, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:38:y:2012:i:4:p:512-528
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.697427
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    Cited by:

    1. Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    2. Murshed Syed Mansoob & Gates Scott & Hasan Rashel & Badiuzzaman Muhammad, 2025. "How Inequality and Repression Affect the Link Between Food Insecurity and Urban Social Disorder," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 31(2), pages 229-257.
    3. Langlois, Jérémie & Shalaby, Marwa, 2025. "Legislative responsiveness, urban growth, and popular mobilization: Evidence from Algeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    5. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Plänitz Erik, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Daniil Romanov & Andrey Korotayev, 2019. "«Non-Violent, But Still Dangerous»: Testing The Link Between Youth Bulges And The Intensity Of Non-Violent Protests," HSE Working papers WP BRP 69/PS/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Arton Hajdari & Artan Hajdini & Shenaj Haxhimustafa, 2024. "Legal Determinants That Impact Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 25(2), pages 76-107, April.
    9. Elfversson, Emma, 2025. "Contentious cities? Urban growth and electoral violence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Wietzke, Frank-Borge, 2025. "Beyond urban bias? Urban-rural inequalities and popular protest in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela & Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria, 2025. "Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB).
    12. Henry Thomson & Karim Bahgat & Henrik Urdal & Halvard Buhaug, 2023. "Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(3), pages 521-531, May.
    13. Muhammad Arqam Mushtaq & Muhammad Idrees & Muhammad Roman, 2018. "Assessing the Implications of Deviant Behavior on Society in Central Punjab Pakistan," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 33-41.

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