IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v90y2025ipbs0176268025001053.html

Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela
  • Li Donni, Paolo
  • Marino, Maria

Abstract

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela & Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria, 2025. "Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:90:y:2025:i:pb:s0176268025001053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268025001053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 13-28, February.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 259-281, April.
    3. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 758-781.
    4. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, 2022. "Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    5. Marco Manacorda & Andrea Tesei, 2020. "Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 533-567, March.
    6. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "A Turn to Violence: The Escalation of Nonviolent Movements," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(2-3), pages 318-343, February.
    9. Erica Chenoweth & Margherita Belgioioso, 2019. "The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 1088-1095, October.
    10. Amy Yunyu Chiang, 2021. "Violence, non-violence and the conditional effect of repression on subsequent dissident mobilization," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(6), pages 627-653, November.
    11. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    12. Rüdig, Wolfgang & Karyotis, Georgios, 2014. "Who Protests in Greece? Mass Opposition to Austerity," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 487-513, July.
    13. Benjamin Smith, 2004. "Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World, 1960–1999," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 232-246, April.
    14. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    15. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
    16. Cristina Bodea & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Christian Houle, 2017. "Do Civil Wars, Coups and Riots Have the Same Structural Determinants?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 537-561, May.
    17. Finkel, Steven E. & Muller, Edward N., 1998. "Rational Choice and the Dynamics of Collective Political Action: Evaluating Alternative Models with Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 37-49, March.
    18. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Jean Lacroix, 2023. "Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 764-813.
    20. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni, 2022. "The dynamic interdependence in the demand of primary and emergency secondary care: A hidden Markov approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 521-536, April.
    21. Christensen, Darin & Garfias, Francisco, 2018. "Can You Hear Me Now? How Communication Technology Affects Protest and Repression," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 13(1), pages 89-117, March.
    22. Henrik Urdal & Kristian Hoelscher, 2012. "Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 512-528, September.
    23. E Elbadawi & N Sambanis, 2000. "Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(3), pages 244-269.
    24. Leonardo Bursztyn & Davide Cantoni & David Y. Yang & Noam Yuchtman & Y. Jane Zhang, 2021. "Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 233-250, June.
    25. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    26. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    27. Pierskalla, Jan H. & Hollenbach, Florian M., 2013. "Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 207-224, May.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    29. Ritter, Emily Hencken & Conrad, Courtenay R., 2016. "Preventing and Responding to Dissent: The Observational Challenges of Explaining Strategic Repression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 85-99, February.
    30. Daniel Gustafson, 2020. "Hunger to Violence: Explaining the Violent Escalation of Nonviolent Demonstrations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1121-1145, July.
    31. Thomas Apolte & Lena Gerling, 2018. "Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 63-93, April.
    32. Eisinger, Peter K., 1973. "The Conditions of Protest Behavior in American Cities," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 11-28, March.
    33. Brandon Ives & Jacob S. Lewis, 2020. "From Rallies to Riots: Why Some Protests Become Violent," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 958-986, May.
    34. Colagrossi, Marco & Rossignoli, Domenico & Maggioni, Mario A., 2020. "Does democracy cause growth? A meta-analysis (of 2000 regressions)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    35. Nick Dietrich & Kristine Eck, 2020. "Known unknowns: media bias in the reporting of political violence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 1043-1060, November.
    36. Idean Salehyan & Cullen S. Hendrix & Jesse Hamner & Christina Case & Christopher Linebarger & Emily Stull & Jennifer Williams, 2012. "Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 503-511, September.
    37. Sonin, Konstantin & Acemoglu, Daron & Egorov, Georgy, 2020. "Institutional Change and Institutional Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15295, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    38. Costello, Matthew & Jenkins, J. Craig & Aly, Hassan, 2015. "Bread, Justice, or Opportunity? The Determinants of the Arab Awakening Protests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 90-100.
    39. Enos, Ryan D. & Kaufman, Aaron R. & Sands, Melissa L., 2019. "Can Violent Protest Change Local Policy Support? Evidence from the Aftermath of the 1992 Los Angeles Riot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1012-1028, November.
    40. Felix Famoye, 2010. "On the bivariate negative binomial regression model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 969-981.
    41. Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-1342, June.
    42. Qi Chen & Wen Luo & Gregory J. Palardy & Ryan Glaman & Amber McEnturff, 2017. "The Efficacy of Common Fit Indices for Enumerating Classes in Growth Mixture Models When Nested Data Structure Is Ignored," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(1), pages 21582440177, March.
    43. Ida Rudolfsen, 2021. "Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 215-230, March.
    44. Standaert, Samuel, 2015. "Divining the level of corruption: A Bayesian state-space approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 782-803.
    45. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
    46. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    47. Solveig Hillesund & Gudrun Østby, 2023. "Horizontal inequalities, political violence, and nonviolent conflict mobilization: A review of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 1589-1635, December.
    48. Kitschelt, Herbert P., 1986. "Political Opportunity Structures and Political Protest: Anti-Nuclear Movements in Four Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 57-85, January.
    49. Collins, William J. & Margo, Robert A., 2007. "The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots in American Cities: Evidence from Property Values," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 849-883, December.
    50. Ragnhild Nordås & Christian Davenport, 2013. "Fight the Youth: Youth Bulges and State Repression," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 926-940, October.
    51. Aidt, Toke S. & Franck, Raphaël, 2019. "What Motivates an Oligarchic Elite to Democratize? Evidence from the Roll Call Vote on the Great Reform Act of 1832," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 773-825, September.
    52. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:04:p:1012-1028_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Daniel Jordan Smith, 2014. "Corruption complaints, inequality and ethnic grievances in post-Biafra Nigeria," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 787-802, May.
    54. Henisz, Witold J, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Multinational Investment," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 334-364, October.
    55. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Frederick Solt, 2008. "Economic Inequality and Democratic Political Engagement," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 48-60, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Indra de Soysa, 2019. "Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013," Working Papers 201908 Key words: Oil wea, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    3. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Daniil Romanov & Andrey Korotayev, 2019. "«Non-Violent, But Still Dangerous»: Testing The Link Between Youth Bulges And The Intensity Of Non-Violent Protests," HSE Working papers WP BRP 69/PS/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
    6. Ayal Feinberg & Idean Salehyan, 2025. "Student protest, violent interactions, and state repression," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(1), pages 85-101, January.
    7. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya & de Soysa, Indra, 2020. "Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Alou Adessé Dama, 2021. "Exploring Tilly’s Theory : Violent Conflicts and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03401539, HAL.
    9. Justino, Patricia, 2025. "Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence: The role of social mobilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Jacob S Lewis & Brandon Ives, 2025. "Repression, backlash, and the duration of protests in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(1), pages 21-35, January.
    11. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, 2022. "Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    12. Thomas Apolte & Lena Gerling, 2018. "Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 63-93, April.
    13. Bharati, Tushar & Jetter, Michael & Malik, Muhammad Nauman, 2024. "Types of communications technology and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    14. Andrea Marcucci & Dominic Rohner & Alessandro Saia, 2023. "Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of the UK’s Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1510-1536.
    15. Roberto Ezcurra & Beatriz Manotas, 2015. "Does globalization promote civil war? An empirical research," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1501, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    16. Laura Mayoral & Hannes Mueller, 2025. "Rents, Rules or Revolution: A Survey of Institutional Pathways to Peace," Working Papers 1511, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Alireza Naghavi, 2010. "Rent seekers in rentier states: When greed brings peace," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 039, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    19. Solveig Hillesund & Gudrun Østby, 2023. "Horizontal inequalities, political violence, and nonviolent conflict mobilization: A review of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 1589-1635, December.
    20. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:90:y:2025:i:pb:s0176268025001053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.