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Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa

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  • Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela
  • Li Donni, Paolo
  • Marino, Maria

Abstract

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela & Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria, 2025. "Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:90:y:2025:i:pb:s0176268025001053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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