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Revisiting the link between growth and federalism: A Bayesian model averaging approach

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Listed author(s):
  • Asatryan, Zareh
  • Feld, Lars P.

Abstract

Following the ambiguous results in the literature aimed at understanding the empirical link between fiscal federalism and economic growth, this paper revisits the question using a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. The analysis suggests that the failure to appropriately account for model uncertainty may have previously led to biased estimates. The results from a sample of 23 OECD countries over 1975-2000 indicate that after controlling for unobserved country heterogeneity, there is no robust link, neither positive, nor negative, between output growth and fiscal federalism (measured as sub-national governments' share of own source tax revenue).

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 13-049.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13049
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Keywords: Fiscal Federalism; Economic Growth; Bayesian Model Averaging;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
  • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
  • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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Cited by:

  1. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2014. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization and Economic Growth: Survey and Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4985, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Zareh Asatryan & Lars Feld & Benny Geys, 2015. "Partial fiscal decentralization and sub-national government fiscal discipline: empirical evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 307-320, June.
  3. Voigt, Stefan & Gutmann, Jerg & Feld, Lars P., 2015. "Economic growth and judicial independence, a dozen years on: Cross-country evidence using an updated Set of indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-211.
  4. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2016. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization, And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1445-1463, 07.
  5. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Sarah Necker, 2016. "Depressing Dependence? Transfers and Economic Growth in the German States, 1975-2005," CESifo Working Paper Series 6055, CESifo Group Munich.

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