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Does scientific research output matter for Portugal’s economic growth?

Author

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  • Tânia Pinto
  • Aurora Teixeira

    (CEF.UP, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
    CEF.UP, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto; INESC Tec)

Abstract

The literature on the impact of research output on economic growth has been rapidly expanding. However, the single growth processes of technological laggard countries and the mediating roles of human capital and structural change have been overlooked. Resorting to cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests for Portugal over the last 40 years (1980-2019) four main results are worth highlighting: (1) in the long-run, global and hard sciences (life sciences, physical sciences, engineering and technology, social sciences) research outputs are positively and significantly associated to economic growth; (2) in the short-run, global, hard sciences and soft sciences (base clinical, pre-clinical and health, arts and humanities) foster economic growth; (3) important (long and short-run) mismatches between human capital and scientific production emerged, with the years of schooling mitigating the positive impact of research output on economic growth; (4) structural change processes favouring industry amplify the positive (long-run) association and (short-run) impact of research output on economic growth. Such results robustly suggest that even in technological laggard contexts, scientific production is critical for economic growth, especially when aligned with changes in sectoral production composition favouring industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Tânia Pinto & Aurora Teixeira, 2023. "Does scientific research output matter for Portugal’s economic growth?," GEE Papers 0174, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research output; human capital; structural change; economic growth; cointegration analysis; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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