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Dynamic panels with predetermined regressors: likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian averaging with an application to cross-country growth

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper discusses likelihood-based estimation of linear panel data models with general predetermined variables and individual-specific effects. The resulting (pseudo) maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically equivalent to standard GMM but tends to have smaller finite-sample biases as illustrated in simulation experiments. Moreover, the availability of such a likelihood function allows applying the Bayesian apparatus to this class of panel data models. Combining the aforementioned estimator with Bayesian model averaging methods we estimate empirical growth models simultaneously considering endogenous regressors and model uncertainty. Empirical results indicate that only the investment ratio seems to robustly cause long-run economic growth. Moreover, the estimated rate of convergence is not significantly different from zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Dynamic panels with predetermined regressors: likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian averaging with an application to cross-country growth," Working Papers 1109, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1109
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/11/Fich/dt1109e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    2. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2013. "Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 87-125, December.
    4. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Bartolucci, Cristian, 2012. "Income and democracy: Revisiting the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 844-847.
    2. Shekhar Aiyar & Romain A Duval & Damien Puy & Yiqun Wu & Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 13/71, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic panel estimation; maximum likelihood; weak instruments; growth regressions; bayesian model averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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