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Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity

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  • Enrique Moral‐Benito

Abstract

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian Model Averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. An application of this econometric methodology to a panel of countries over the 1960-2000 period indicates that there is no robust determinant of economic growth and that the rate of conditional convergence is indistinguishable from zero.
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Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Moral‐Benito, 2016. "Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 584-602, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:3:p:584-602
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    Cited by:

    1. Kebede, Jeleta & Naranpanawa, Athula & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2023. "Financial inclusion and income inequality nexus: A case of Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 539-557.
    2. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    3. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Ng, Adam & Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Mirakhor, Abbas, 2016. "Does trust contribute to stock market development?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 239-250.
    6. Czyżewski, Daniel, 2021. "The relationship between the international trade and economic growth accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," MPRA Paper 108405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel, 2016. "The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take-off," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 264-295, February.
    8. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    9. Krzysztof Biegun & Jacek Karwowski & Piotr Luty, 2021. "How Effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in Predicting Negative Macroeconomic Phenomena?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 822-837.
    10. Sara D'Andrea, 2022. "Are there any robust determinants of growth in Europe? A Bayesian Model Averaging approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 171, pages 143-173.
    11. Georg Duernecker & Moritz Meyer & Fernando Vega‐Redondo, 2022. "Trade openness and growth: A network‐based approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1182-1203, September.
    12. Beck, Krzysztof & Wyszyński, Mateusz & Dubel, Marcin, 2025. "Bayesian dynamic systems modelling. Bayesian model averaging for dynamic panels with weakly exogenous regressors," MPRA Paper 124689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andros Kourtellos & Alex Lenkoski & Kyriakos Petrou, 2017. "Measuring the Strength of the Theories of Government Size," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 11-2017, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    14. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.
    15. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    16. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.
    17. Chupryhin, Radzivon, 2021. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Weak Exogeneity," MPRA Paper 107197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special3:p:822-837 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Walheer, Barnabé, 2021. "Labor productivity and technology heterogeneity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Karol Szafranek & Marek Kwas & Grzegorz Szafrański & Zuzanna Wośko, 2020. "Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, November.
    21. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1065-1079, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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