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The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060

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  • Yvan Guillemette
  • David Turner

Abstract

This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:22-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
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    2. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    3. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    4. Jakub Sawulski & Iga Magda & Piotr Lewandowski, 2019. "Will the Polish pension system go bankrupt?," IBS Policy Papers 02/2019, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    5. Manuel Bétin & Tim Bulman & Thomas Chalaux & Boris Cournède & Alain de Serres & Claude Giorno & Yvan Guillemette, 2020. "OECD contribution to the evaluation of the ESM financial assistance programme for Greece," Discussion Papers 12, European Stability Mechanism, revised 27 Oct 2021.
    6. Alexandre Pavlov & Charles Vaillancourt & Michel Poitevin, 2020. "Tarification optimale du gaz carbonique et élasticités dans les transports," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-20, CIRANO.
    7. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Vibeke S. Norstebø & Fabian R. Aponte & Moana S. Simas & Tina Andersen & Gerardo A. Perez-Valdes, 2023. "Circular Economy and the triple bottom line in Norway," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Feng Shenghao & Philip Adams & Zhang Keyu & Peng Xiujian & Yang Jun, 2020. "Economic Implications of Global Energy Interconnection," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-307, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Sergio Mariotti, 2022. "A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 761-782, December.
    10. Christine Lewis & Patrice Ollivaud, 2020. "Policies for Switzerland’s ageing society," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1600, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conditional convergence; fiscal sustainability; governance reform; labour market reform; long-term growth; long-term projection; retirement age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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