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Can an Increase in Public Investment Sustainably Lift Economic Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Annabelle Mourougane
  • Jarmila Botev
  • Jean-Marc Fournier
  • Nigel Pain
  • Elena Rusticelli

Abstract

This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances. To do so, it relies on a range of simulations using three different macro-structural models. According to the simulations, OECD governments could finance a ½ percentage point of GDP investment-led stimulus for three to four years on average in OECD countries without raising the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, provided projects are sound. After one year, the average output gains for the large advanced economies of such a stimulus amount to 0.4-0.6%. However, the gains are particularly uncertain for Japan. Reprioritising spending in later years would lead to average long-term output gains of between 0.5 to 2% in the large advanced economies. Those gains depend on the assumptions made on the rate of return. Hysteresis reinforces the case for an investment-led stimulus. Output gains will also be higher if the stimulus is combined with structural reforms and if countries act collectively. Une augmentation de l'investissement public peut-elle durablement augmenter la croissance? Ce document de travail cherche à déterminer les conditions dans lesquelles l'augmentation de l'investissement public peut soutenir la croissance durablement sans détériorer les finances publiques. Pour ce faire, il s'appuie sur une série de simulations utilisant trois modèles macro-structurels différents. Selon les simulations, les gouvernements des pays de l'OCDE pourraient financer une augmentation de l'investissement de ½ point de PIB pendant trois à quatre ans en moyenne dans les pays de l'OCDE sans augmenter le ratio dette sur PIB à moyen terme, à condition que les projets soient de bonne qualité. Après un an, les gains moyens de production pour les grandes économies avancées d'un tel stimulus s'élèvent à 0,4-0,6%. Cependant, ces gains sont particulièrement incertains pour le Japon. Une réallocation des dépenses vers celles qui sont les plus productives les années suivantes, se traduirait par des gains moyens à long terme de production entre 0,5 et 2% dans les grandes économies avancées. Ces gains dépendent des hypothèses retenues sur le taux de rendement. Les effets d'hystérésis renforcent l'argument en faveur d'une augmentation de l'investissement public. Les gains de production seront également plus élevés si le stimulus est combiné à des réformes structurelles et si les pays agissent collectivement.

Suggested Citation

  • Annabelle Mourougane & Jarmila Botev & Jean-Marc Fournier & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli, 2016. "Can an Increase in Public Investment Sustainably Lift Economic Growth?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1351, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1351-en
    DOI: 10.1787/a25a7723-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2020. "Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    4. Olegs Tkacevs, 2020. "Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame?," Working Papers 2020/04, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "(Un)Productive Use of Public Debt in Kosovo," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 18-37, December.
    6. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.
    7. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2017. "A new approach to governance and integration in EMU for an optimal use of economic policy framework - priority to financial union," Working Papers 229, Bank of Greece.
    8. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    9. Panagiotis Barkas & Mauro Pisu, 2018. "Boosting investment in Greece," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1506, OECD Publishing.
    10. Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Véronique Salins & David Turner, 2018. "A Model-Based Analysis of the Effect of Increased Public Investment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244(1), pages 15-20, May.
    11. Sajedi, Rana & Steinbach, Armin, 2019. "Fiscal rules and structural reforms," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-42.
    12. Cameron Hepburn & Brian O’Callaghan & Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2020. "Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 359-381.
    13. Armin Steinbach, 2019. "Making the Best of EU Fiscal Rules and Structural Reforms," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 17-22, August.
    14. Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Why sustainable, inclusive, and resilient investment makes for efficacious post-COVID medicine," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110936, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    16. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Hanen OMRANE, 2017. "Macroeconomic determinants of public debt growth: A case study for Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 161-168, Winter.
    17. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    18. Desislava Zheleva Kalcheva, 2017. "Interrelationship Between Public Investments and Economic Developement in the EU Counties," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 3, pages 281-290.
    19. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.
    20. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; public debt; public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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