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Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik Braconier

    (OECD)

  • Giuseppe Nicoletti

    (OECD)

  • Ben Westmore

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years. Défis politiques pour les 50 prochaines années Ce document passe en revue et analyse quelques-uns des problèmes clés auxquels les pays de l’OCDE et leurs partenaires pourraient être confrontés dans les 50 prochaines années si les grandes tendances mondiales se confirment en matière de croissance, d’échanges, d’inégalités et de pressions environnementales. Par exemple, la croissance mondiale va vraisemblablement ralentir et devenir de plus en plus tributaire du savoir et de la technologie. Les coûts économiques des dommages causés à l’environnement vont augmenter. L’importance croissante du savoir dans l’économie aura en général pour effet d’accroître le rendement de la formation, ce qui devrait accentuer les inégalités de revenu au sein des pays. Ces inégalités n’augmenteront pas automatiquement avec le revenu avant impôt, mais les pouvoirs publics auront peut-être du mal à les atténuer, en raison de l’intégration commerciale et de la mobilité croissante des assiettes fiscales, ainsi que des fortes pressions budgétaires auxquels ils sont soumis. Ce document examine les solutions que les politiques structurelles nationales peuvent offrir à ces problèmes et à un certain nombre d’enjeux connexes ; il souligne également le besoin croissant d’une coordination et d’une coopération internationales face à ces questions au cours des 50 prochaines années.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Braconier & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Ben Westmore, 2014. "Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 9, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:9-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jz18gs5fckf-en
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    3. Benedikter Roland & Kühne Kjell & Benedikter Ariane & Atzeni Giovanni, 2016. "The Future of Resources: A New Chapter," New Global Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 133-161, July.
    4. Toshihiko HAYASHI, 2016. "Population as a Source of Long−Term Growth: From Malthus to Japan’s Postmodern Regime," APIR Discussion Paper Series 1005572, Asia Pacific Institute of Research.
    5. Mike Pennock, 2016. "Slower Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being in the Canadian Context: A Discussion Paper," CSLS Research Reports 2016-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. Gabriel Machlica, 2017. "Enhancing skills to boost growth in Hungary," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1364, OECD Publishing.
    7. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    8. Bernadette Biatour & Chantal Kegels, 2015. "Working Paper 06-15 - Labour productivity growth in Belgium - Long-term trend decline and possible actions," Working Papers 1506, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    9. Orsetta Causa & Alain de Serres & Nicolas Ruiz, 2015. "Structural reforms and income distribution," OECD Economic Policy Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    10. Dan ANDREWS & Chiara CRISCUOLO & Dirk PILAT, 2015. "The Future of Productivity Improving the Diffusion of Technology and Knowledge," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 85-105, 4th quart.
    11. Lichtblau, Karl & Bähr, Cornelius & Millack, Agnes & van Baal, Sebastian & aus dem Moore, Nils & Korfhage, Thorben, 2015. "Zukunft von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft unter Minimalwachstumsbedingungen: Begründungsmuster, Folgen, Handlungsoptionen," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 123324.
    12. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews, 2015. "Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1210, OECD Publishing.
    13. Karl Aiginger & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2016. "Österreich 2025: Eine Agenda für erhöhte Dynamik, sozialen Ausgleich und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(8), pages 573-591, August.
    14. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    15. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2017. "Government-sponsored labour-market training and output growth - cyclical, structural and globalization influences," Working Paper series 17-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Long-term Patterns of Trade and Specialisation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1136, OECD Publishing.
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    18. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    changement climatique; changement technologique; climate change; consolidation fiscale; coordination; coordination; croissance; dégâts environnementaux; enseignement supérieur; environmental damages; fiscal consolidation; global economy; growth; immigration; immigration; income distribution; inequality; interdependence; interdépendance; inégalité; projections; prévisions; réformes structurelles; répartition des revenus; structural reforms; technological change; tertiary education; économie mondiale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • H - Public Economics
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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