IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaab/9-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik Braconier

    (OECD)

  • Giuseppe Nicoletti

    (OECD)

  • Ben Westmore

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years. Défis politiques pour les 50 prochaines années Ce document passe en revue et analyse quelques-uns des problèmes clés auxquels les pays de l’OCDE et leurs partenaires pourraient être confrontés dans les 50 prochaines années si les grandes tendances mondiales se confirment en matière de croissance, d’échanges, d’inégalités et de pressions environnementales. Par exemple, la croissance mondiale va vraisemblablement ralentir et devenir de plus en plus tributaire du savoir et de la technologie. Les coûts économiques des dommages causés à l’environnement vont augmenter. L’importance croissante du savoir dans l’économie aura en général pour effet d’accroître le rendement de la formation, ce qui devrait accentuer les inégalités de revenu au sein des pays. Ces inégalités n’augmenteront pas automatiquement avec le revenu avant impôt, mais les pouvoirs publics auront peut-être du mal à les atténuer, en raison de l’intégration commerciale et de la mobilité croissante des assiettes fiscales, ainsi que des fortes pressions budgétaires auxquels ils sont soumis. Ce document examine les solutions que les politiques structurelles nationales peuvent offrir à ces problèmes et à un certain nombre d’enjeux connexes ; il souligne également le besoin croissant d’une coordination et d’une coopération internationales face à ces questions au cours des 50 prochaines années.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Braconier & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Ben Westmore, 2014. "Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 9, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:9-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jz18gs5fckf-en
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
    2. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," NBER Working Papers 9159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    4. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    5. Iain M. Cockburn & Megan J. MacGarvie & Elisabeth Müller, 2010. "Patent thickets, licensing and innovative performance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 899-925, June.
    6. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    7. Andrei A Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2013. "The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: A Quantitative Assessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 479-519, August.
    8. Andrea Pozzi & Fabiano Schivardi, 2016. "Demand or productivity: what determines firm growth?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(3), pages 608-630, August.
    9. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 4, OECD Publishing.
    10. Torben Andersen, 2008. "The Scandinavian model—prospects and challenges," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(1), pages 45-66, February.
    11. Orsetta Causa & Sophie Dantan & Åsa Johansson, 2009. "Intergenerational Social Mobility in European OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 709, OECD Publishing.
    12. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1997. "Is labour rigidity harming Europe's competitiveness? The effect of job protection on the pattern of trade and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 499-506, April.
    13. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2002. "Employment protection, international specialization, and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 375-395, February.
    14. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    15. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    16. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 203-224, Winter.
    17. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-555.
    18. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Peter Hoeller & Jon Pareliussen & Mauro Pisu, 2014. "Vulnerability of Social Institutions," OECD Economic Policy Papers 11, OECD Publishing.
    19. Nicholas Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 167-201, February.
    20. Gordon C. Winston, 1999. "Subsidies, Hierarchy and Peers: The Awkward Economics of Higher Education," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 13-36, Winter.
    21. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    22. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    23. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    24. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    25. Ben Westmore, 2013. "Innovation and Growth: Considerations for Public Policy," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(3).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Denk & Boris Cournède, 2015. "Finance and income inequality in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1224, OECD Publishing.
    2. Benedikter Roland & Kühne Kjell & Benedikter Ariane & Atzeni Giovanni, 2016. "The Future of Resources: A New Chapter," New Global Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 133-161, July.
    3. Toshihiko HAYASHI, 2016. "Population as a Source of Long−Term Growth: From Malthus to Japan’s Postmodern Regime," APIR Discussion Paper Series 1005572, Asia Pacific Institute of Research.
    4. Mike Pennock, 2016. "Slower Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being in the Canadian Context: A Discussion Paper," CSLS Research Reports 2016-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    5. Gabriel Machlica, 2017. "Enhancing skills to boost growth in Hungary," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1364, OECD Publishing.
    6. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    7. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    8. Bernadette Biatour & Chantal Kegels, 2015. "Working Paper 06-15 - Labour productivity growth in Belgium - Long-term trend decline and possible actions," Working Papers 1506, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    9. Orsetta Causa & Alain de Serres & Nicolas Ruiz, 2015. "Structural reforms and income distribution," OECD Economic Policy Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    10. Dan ANDREWS & Chiara CRISCUOLO & Dirk PILAT, 2015. "The Future of Productivity Improving the Diffusion of Technology and Knowledge," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 85-105, 4th quart.
    11. repec:hal:journl:hal-01299777 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lichtblau, Karl & Bähr, Cornelius & Millack, Agnes & van Baal, Sebastian & aus dem Moore, Nils & Korfhage, Thorben, 2015. "Zukunft von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft unter Minimalwachstumsbedingungen: Begründungsmuster, Folgen, Handlungsoptionen," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 123324.
    13. Muge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews, 2015. "Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1210, OECD Publishing.
    14. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    15. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2017. "Government-sponsored labour-market training and output growth - cyclical, structural and globalization influences," Working Paper series 17-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Long-term Patterns of Trade and Specialisation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1136, OECD Publishing.
    17. Henrik Braconier & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2014. "Gross Earning Inequalities in OECD Countries and Major Non-member Economies: Determinants and Future Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1139, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    changement climatique; changement technologique; climate change; consolidation fiscale; coordination; coordination; croissance; dégâts environnementaux; enseignement supérieur; environmental damages; fiscal consolidation; global economy; growth; immigration; immigration; income distribution; inequality; interdependence; interdépendance; inégalité; projections; prévisions; réformes structurelles; répartition des revenus; structural reforms; technological change; tertiary education; économie mondiale;

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • H - Public Economics
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:9-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.