IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ibt/ppaper/pp022019.html

Will the Polish pension system go bankrupt?

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Sawulski
  • Iga Magda
  • Piotr Lewandowski

Abstract

How will the rapid ageing of the population affect pension expenditure in Poland? Jakub Sawulski, Iga Magda and Piotr Lewandowski show that pension expenditure will remain at a level similar to now until 2060. The most important factor preventing an increase in pension expenditure will be a drop in the level of pension benefits. The average replacement rate (the ratio between a person’s first pension and their last salary) will fall by more than double in Poland, which will be the largest fall among all EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Sawulski & Iga Magda & Piotr Lewandowski, 2019. "Will the Polish pension system go bankrupt?," IBS Policy Papers 02/2019, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp022019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ibs.org.pl//app/uploads/2019/06/IBS_Policy_Paper_02_2019_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Piotr Lewandowski & Jakub Sawulski & Kamil Stronski, 2016. "Labour market segmentation and the financial situation of the pension system in Poland," IBS Working Papers 10/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    2. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    3. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2019. "On welfare effects of increasing retirement age," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 718-746.
    4. Piotr Lewandowski & Kamil Stronski & Roma Keister, 2015. "Labour market segmentation and pensions in the Polish defined-contribution scheme," IBS Working Papers 9/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jarocinska Elena & Ruzik-Sierdzińska Anna, 2023. "The distributional effects of the pension system reform in Poland," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piotr Lewandowski & Jakub Sawulski & Kamil Stronski, 2016. "Labour market segmentation and the financial situation of the pension system in Poland," IBS Working Papers 10/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    2. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Ilai Levin & Alessia Pagani & Mauro Pisu & Åsa Johansson, 2022. "A framework to decarbonise the economy," OECD Economic Policy Papers 31, OECD Publishing.
    3. Xie, Xiaohong & Osińska, Magdalena & Szczepaniak, Małgorzata, 2023. "Do young generations save for retirement? Ensuring financial security of Gen Z and Gen Y," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 644-668.
    4. Harrison, Rodrigo & Parada-Contzen, Marcela & Villena, Marcelo, 2023. "Can auctions increase competition in the pension funds market? The Chilean experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 975-993.
    5. Marek Gora & Piotr Lewandowski & Maciej Lis, 2017. "Temporary employment boom in Poland – a job quality vs. quantity trade-off?," IBS Working Papers 04/2017, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    6. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Witold M. Orłowski & Jakub Karnowski & Andrzej Rzońca & Ewa Balcerowicz, 2024. "Economic Scenarios for Poland," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 0179, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Laszlo Goerke, 2018. "Sickness Absence and Relative Income," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201812, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    8. Eyad Aldarsi & Rajendra Singh & Jiangfeng Zhang & Vishwas Powar, 2025. "A Photovoltaics and Battery-Based End-to-End Direct-Current Power Network for Community Solar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Artur Rutkowski, 2019. "Evaluating an old-age voluntary saving scheme under incomplete rationality," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 55-94.
    10. Christine Lewis & Patrice Ollivaud, 2020. "Policies for Switzerland’s ageing society," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1600, OECD Publishing.
    11. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Vibeke S. Norstebø & Fabian R. Aponte & Moana S. Simas & Tina Andersen & Gerardo A. Perez-Valdes, 2023. "Circular Economy and the triple bottom line in Norway," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, March.
    12. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    13. Manuel Bétin & Tim Bulman & Thomas Chalaux & Boris Cournède & Alain de Serres & Claude Giorno & Yvan Guillemette, 2020. "OECD contribution to the evaluation of the ESM financial assistance programme for Greece," Discussion Papers 12, European Stability Mechanism, revised 27 Oct 2021.
    14. Alexandre Pavlov & Charles Vaillancourt & Michel Poitevin, 2020. "Tarification optimale du gaz carbonique et élasticités dans les transports," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-20, CIRANO.
    15. Joanna Tyrowicz & Krzysztof Makarski & Marcin Bielecki, 2018. "Inequality in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systems," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(4), pages 583-606, December.
    16. Feng Shenghao & Philip Adams & Zhang Keyu & Peng Xiujian & Yang Jun, 2020. "Economic Implications of Global Energy Interconnection," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-307, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    17. Sergio Mariotti, 2022. "A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 761-782, December.
    18. Svend E. Hougaard Jensen & Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson & Miguel Sousa Duarte, 2025. "Working less for longer: unintended effects of longevity adjustment of retirement age," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 1076-1105, August.
    19. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    20. Aldona Klimkiewicz, 2017. "Obnizenie wieku emerytalnego w Polsce. Implikacje dla kobiet w sferze rynku pracy / Lowering the Retirement Age in Poland. Implications for Women in the Area of Employment," Annales. Ethics in Economic Life, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, vol. 20(2), pages 131-144, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp022019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IBS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibswapl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.