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How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach

Author

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  • David Amaglobeli
  • Wei Shi

Abstract

Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?

Suggested Citation

  • David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2016/002
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    Cited by:

    1. Verico, Kiki, 2017. "Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight," MPRA Paper 79530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ms. Majdeline El Rayess & Avril Halstead & Jason Harris & Mr. John Ralyea & Alexander F. Tieman, 2019. "Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2019/081, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Junlae Kim & Seiyong Kim, 2020. "The Impact of Population Characteristics and Government Budgets on the Sustainability of Public Buildings in Korea’s Regional Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    5. Mr. Fabien Gonguet & Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2019. "Public Wealth in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2019/139, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Diego Wachs & Jorge Onrubia, 2021. "Automatic adjustment mechanisms in public pension reforms: Effects over fiscal sustainability, adequacy, and fairness," Working Papers 2021-05, FEDEA.

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