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The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation

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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon
  • Jean-Marc Rizzo

Abstract

This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002
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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8392, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/8392
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Bénassy-Quéré & B. Cœuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange rate Regimes," Thema Working Papers 2002-11, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    2. Frank Bohn, 2006. "Greed, impatience and exchange rate determination," Working Papers 200605, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ebeke Christian & Fouejieu Armand, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes in emerging markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-24, June.
    5. Liu, Jie & Wei, Wei & Shi, Yao-Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2020. "The nexus between country risk and exchange rate regimes: A global investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Philipp Harms & Mathias Hoffmann, 2011. "Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 825-846, November.
    7. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Armand P Fouejieu, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2015/228, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bohn Frank, 2013. "The Politics of Surprise Devaluations: Modelling Motives for Giving Up a Peg," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 562-574, October.
    9. Kato, Isamu & Uctum, Merih, 2008. "Choice of exchange rate regime and currency zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 436-456.
    10. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    11. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
    12. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Mehmet Güçlü, 2008. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, pages 177-191, Izmir University of Economics.
    14. Eman Elish, 2019. "The Determinants of Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes in High and Low Oil-Producing Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 97-120, December.
    15. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2008. "Exploring different views of exchange rate regime choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1177-1197, November.
    16. Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?," Working Papers 85, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2005.
    17. Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    18. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis," ZEI Working Papers B 32-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    19. Mohamed Sfia, 2011. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 275-305, September.
    20. Najia Maraoui & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Islem Khefacha & Christophe Rault, 2021. "How Economic, Political, and Institutional Factors Influence the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes? New Evidence from Selected Countries of the MENA Region," Working Papers 1498, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    21. Anja Shortland, 2004. "The Role of Politics and Institutions in LDC Currency Devaluations," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/30, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    22. Hiro Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23967, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    23. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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