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The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation

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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon
  • Jean-Marc Rizzo

Abstract

This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002
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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8392, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/8392
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    12. Susan M. Collins & Francesco Giavazzi, 1993. "Attitudes toward Inflation and the Viability of Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from the EMS," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 547-586 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian & Lin Yin, 2016. "Global Trends in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 71-85, February.
    2. Frank Bohn, 2006. "Greed, impatience and exchange rate determination," Working Papers 200605, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    5. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," ADBI Working Papers 456, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Philipp Harms & Mathias Hoffmann, 2011. "Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 825-846, November.
    7. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis," ZEI Working Papers B 32-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    8. Mehmet Güçlü, 2008. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics,in: Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, pages 177-191 Izmir University of Economics.
    9. Bohn Frank, 2013. "The Politics of Surprise Devaluations: Modelling Motives for Giving Up a Peg," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 562-574, October.
    10. Mohamed Sfia, 2011. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 275-305, September.
    11. Kato, Isamu & Uctum, Merih, 2008. "Choice of exchange rate regime and currency zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 436-456.
    12. Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?," Working Papers 85, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2005.
    13. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    14. Anja Shortland, 2004. "The Role of Politics and Institutions in LDC Currency Devaluations," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/30, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    15. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
    16. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2008. "Exploring different views of exchange rate regime choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1177-1197, November.

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