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Greed, impatience and exchange rate determination

Author

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  • Frank Bohn

Abstract

This paper offers a theoretical explanation for the determination of exchange rates under specific conditions which can/could be found in some OECD and newly industrialised countries. In an Obstfeld (1994) framework extended to incorporate government expropriation reneging on a fixed exchange rate promise unambiguously produces short term benefits, but long term losses. The choice of exchange rate regime depends on the combined effect of greediness (expropriation) and impatience (political instability), though not straightforwardly. In particular, similarly stable countries may choose different exchange rate regimes due to different levels of rent-seeking, for instance Mexico and Chile in the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Bohn, 2006. "Greed, impatience and exchange rate determination," Working Papers 200605, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200605
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1341
    File Function: First version, 2006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-132, April.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Exchange Rates and the Political Economy of Macroeconomic Discipline," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 159-163, May.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    5. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Viegi, Nicola, 2004. "An independent central bank faced with elected governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 907-922, November.
    6. Torben Andersen, 1998. "Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 139-156, April.
    7. Bohn, Frank, 2002. "Eliminating the Inflationary Finance Trap in a Politically Unstable Country: Domestic Politics versus International Pressure," Economics Discussion Papers 8853, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    8. Anders Bergvall, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stability: the case of Sweden," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 422-446, July.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Alexander F. Wagner, 2006. "Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 770-799, June.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regime; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Expropriation; Political instability; Political economy; Foreign exchange rates; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other

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