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The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis

  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

This Paper analyses the choices of exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. Static and dynamic random-effects multinomial panel models are estimated using simulation-based techniques. Explanatory variables include OCA fundamentals, stabilization considerations, currency crises factors, and political and institutional features. The results reveal strong state dependence in regime choices.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4227.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4227
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  1. Helene Poirson Ward, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Paolo Mauro & Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes; A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Jürgen von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2005. "The choice of exchange rate regime: "An empirical analysis for transition economies" ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 679-703, October.
  4. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
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  7. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8392, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Rizzo, Jean-Marc, 1998. "The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 283-287, June.
  12. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408.
  13. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  14. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  15. Savvides, Andreas, 1990. "Real exchange rate variability and the choice of exchange rate regime by developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 440-454, December.
  16. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-55, December.
  17. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
  20. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  22. Dreyer, Jacob S., 1978. "Determinants of exchange-rate regimes for currencies of developing countries: Some preliminary results," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 437-445, April.
  23. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-21, August.
  24. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
  25. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
  26. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo Group Munich.
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