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Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience

  • Michael D. Bordo
  • David Hargreaves
  • Mizuho Kida

We identify the timing of currency, banking crises and sudden stops in New Zealand from 1880 to 2008, and consider the extent to which empirical models can explain New Zealand's crisis history. We find that the cross country evidence on the determinants of crises fits New Zealand experience reasonably well. A number of the risk factors that correlate with crises internationally-such as domestic imbalances, external debt, and currency mismatches-were elevated for New Zealand when the country had more frequent crises and have improved in the recent (more stable) period. However, a time-series analysis of New Zealand growth over 120 years shows that global factors-such as the US growth rate and terms of trade-explain New Zealand growth fairly well, and that crisis dummy variables do not have significant additional explanatory power. This suggests that having sound institutions and policies may help avoid severe domestic crises, but will not be sufficient to avoid the domestic economic impact of the global business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16027.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16027.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Publication status: published as Bordo, Michael & Hargreaves, David & Kida, Mizuho, 2011. "Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 331-355, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16027
Note: ME
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  1. Ricardo Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons From Australia and Chile," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 313-354.
  2. Michael Bordo & David Stuckler & Chris Meissner, 2009. "Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View," Working Papers 921, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2005. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," NBER Working Papers 11897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," NBER Working Papers 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Alberto F. Cavallo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913," NBER Working Papers 13489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael Reddell & Cath, Sleeman, 2008. "Some perspectives on past recessions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521725200 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521898010 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  13. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," WEF Working Papers 0002, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
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