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Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • David Hargreaves
  • Mizuho Kida

Abstract

We identify the timing of currency, banking crises and sudden stops in New Zealand from 1880 to 2008, and consider the extent to which empirical models can explain New Zealand's crisis history. We find that the cross country evidence on the determinants of crises fits New Zealand experience reasonably well. A number of the risk factors that correlate with crises internationally-such as domestic imbalances, external debt, and currency mismatches-were elevated for New Zealand when the country had more frequent crises and have improved in the recent (more stable) period. However, a time-series analysis of New Zealand growth over 120 years shows that global factors-such as the US growth rate and terms of trade-explain New Zealand growth fairly well, and that crisis dummy variables do not have significant additional explanatory power. This suggests that having sound institutions and policies may help avoid severe domestic crises, but will not be sufficient to avoid the domestic economic impact of the global business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & David Hargreaves & Mizuho Kida, 2010. "Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience," NBER Working Papers 16027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16027
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    1. Ricardo J Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons from Australia and Chile," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    4. Chris Hunt, 2009. "Banking crises in New Zealand - an historical perspective," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 26-41, December.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 139-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
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    11. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2005. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," NBER Working Papers 11897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
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    14. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "New Zealand: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/103, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-344, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    6. Ms. Yan M Sun, 2011. "From West to East: Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2011/120, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Reza Tajaddini & Timothy Falcon Crack & Helen Roberts, 2015. "Price and Earnings Momentum, Transaction Costs, and an Innovative Practitioner Technique," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 555-597, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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