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From West to East: Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand

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  • Ms. Yan M Sun

Abstract

This paper examines the size and source of external spillovers to Australia and New Zealand based on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach. It finds that during the last decade shocks from emerging Asia have become more important than those from the United States in affecting Australia’s business cycle. A 1 percent shock to emerging Asia’s growth is found to shift Australian growth by about 1/3 percent. Furthermore, there is evidence that commodity prices dominate the transmission of shocks from emerging Asia to Australia. The influence of emerging Asia on New Zealand is found to come indirectly through Australia, with Australian shocks transmitting almost "one-on-one" to New Zealand, largely through financial factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Yan M Sun, 2011. "From West to East: Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2011/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/120
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, March.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
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    4. Bordo, Michael & Hargreaves, David & Kida, Mizuho, 2011. "Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 331-355, December.
    5. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    7. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
    8. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2010. "Emerging Asia’s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM," IMF Working Papers 2010/262, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "China’s recent growth and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/15, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Osborn, Denise R. & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "Growth in China and the US: Effects on a small commodity exporter economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-277.
    3. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon‐seung Huh & David Kim, 2020. "Growth Shocks in the United States and China: Effects on Australia's Growth," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 185-203, September.
    4. Denise R Osborn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on Growth Spillovers from China to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/17, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Mr. Yiqun Wu & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello & Niamh Sheridan, 2012. "Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/154, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.

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