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Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries

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  • Mr. Yiqun Wu
  • Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
  • Niamh Sheridan

Abstract

Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles, and spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than from advanced economies outside the region. While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks. In this paper, we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for each PIC to gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers. The analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock. We also assess the spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook. PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers and implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Yiqun Wu & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello & Niamh Sheridan, 2012. "Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/154, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ms. Yan M Sun, 2011. "From West to East: Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2011/120, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hong Chen & Lanieta Rauqeuqe & Shiu Raj Singh & Yiqun Wu & Yongzheng Yang, 2019. "Pacific Island Countries: In Search of a Trade Strategy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(12), pages 56-80, September.
    2. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2015. "Making Money Work: Financing a Sustainable Future in Asia and the Pacific (Main Report)," ADB Reports RPT157446-2, Asian Development Bank (ADB).
    3. Mr. Chris Becker, 2012. "Small Island States in the Pacific: the Tyranny of Distance," IMF Working Papers 2012/223, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin & Mr. Vladimir Klyuev & Anuk Serechetapongse, 2015. "What Drives Interest Rate Spreads in Pacific Island Countries? An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2015/096, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello & Ezequiel Cabezon & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?," IMF Working Papers 2013/123, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Making Money Work: Financing a Sustainable Future in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers id:11892, eSocialSciences.

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