The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010
The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the reaction of economic policies? To address these questions, our paper makes a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, exploring a set of ï¿½no-crisisï¿½ scenarios. We estimate that the events prompted by the financial turmoil subtracted 6.5 percentage points from economic activity over the period 2008-2010. Specifically, crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by about 10 percentage points, while economic policies and automatic stabilizers mitigated the impact by about 3.5 percentage points. According to our results, the effects of the crisis were mostly ï¿½imported from abroadï¿½; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and of the business and household climates played lesser - though not negligible - roles.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma|
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010.
"Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2013. "Modelling italian potential output and the output gap," Working Papers 7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.
- Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasting: Debunking a few old wives' tales," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 395, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "American Economic Growth and the Voyage of Columbus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 735-740, September.
- Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
- William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
- Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 0077, European Central Bank.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," Working Papers id:248, eSocialSciences.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," NBER Working Papers 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, 2011. "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 281-318, JULY-SEPT.
- Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni, & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, "undated". "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Working Papers wp2010-9, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Market distress and vanishing liquidity: anatomy and policy options," BIS Working Papers 158, Bank for International Settlements.
- Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
- Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
- Britta Hamburg & Sandro Momigliano & Bernhard Manzke & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The Reaction of Fiscal Policy to the Crisis in Italy and Germany: Are they really polar Cases in the European Context?," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 103-133, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)