IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010

  • Michele Caivano

    ()

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Lisa Rodano

    ()

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Stefano Siviero

    ()

    (Banca d'Italia)

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the reaction of economic policies? To address these questions, our paper makes a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, exploring a set of �no-crisis� scenarios. We estimate that the events prompted by the financial turmoil subtracted 6.5 percentage points from economic activity over the period 2008-2010. Specifically, crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by about 10 percentage points, while economic policies and automatic stabilizers mitigated the impact by about 3.5 percentage points. According to our results, the effects of the crisis were mostly �imported from abroad�; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and of the business and household climates played lesser - though not negligible - roles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2010-0064/QEF_64.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 64.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_64_10
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
  2. Britta Hamburg & Sandro Momigliano & Bernhard Manzke & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The Reaction of Fiscal Policy to the Crisis in Italy and Germany: Are they really polar Cases in the European Context?," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 103–133, July.
  3. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2013. "Modelling italian potential output and the output gap," Working Papers 7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  4. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Market distress and vanishing liquidity: anatomy and policy options," BIS Working Papers 158, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," NBER Working Papers 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  7. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
  8. William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  10. Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, 2011. "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 281-318, JULY-SEPT.
  11. McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "American Economic Growth and the Voyage of Columbus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 735-40, September.
  12. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_64_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.