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The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Caivano

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Lisa Rodano

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Stefano Siviero

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the reaction of economic policies? To address these questions, our paper makes a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, exploring a set of �no-crisis� scenarios. We estimate that the events prompted by the financial turmoil subtracted 6.5 percentage points from economic activity over the period 2008-2010. Specifically, crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by about 10 percentage points, while economic policies and automatic stabilizers mitigated the impact by about 3.5 percentage points. According to our results, the effects of the crisis were mostly �imported from abroad�; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and of the business and household climates played lesser - though not negligible - roles.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_64_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 1, pages 1-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Bartoli, Francesca & Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi & Rotondi, Zeno, 2013. "Bank–firm relations and the role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions at the peak of the crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 90-104.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    4. Chiara Carini & Ericka Costa, 2013. "Exploring the performance of social cooperatives during the economic crisis: the Italian case," Euricse Working Papers 1359, Euricse (European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises).
    5. Alessandro Notarpietro & Lisa Rodano, 2016. "The evolution of bad debts in Italy during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis: a counterfactual analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 350, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Andrea Linarello & Andrea Petrella & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Allocative Efficiency and Finance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 487, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Fabio Bacchini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2018. "Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-378, March.
    8. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    9. Antonio Accetturo & Giulia Canzian & Michele Cascarano & Maria Lucia Stefani, 2019. "Debt maturity and firm performance: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1250, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Fabio Busetti & Claire Giordano & Giordano Zevi, 2016. "The Drivers of Italy’s Investment Slump During the Double Recession," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(2), pages 143-165, July.
    11. Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2020. "Scars of youth non-employment and labour market conditions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1312, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Ugo Albertazzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2016. "An inquiry into the determinants of the profitability of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 364, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Francesca Bartoli & Giovanni Ferri & Pierluigi Murro & Zeno Rotondi, 2011. "Soft information and loan supply crisis. Evidence from the credit files of a large bank," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 5-6, november.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global financial crisis; counterfactual simulations; business fluctuations.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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