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War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?

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  • Gunther Tichy

Abstract

The Queen's question “Why did no one see it coming” provoked professional economists as well. A fierce discussion arose how to modify and improve theory and models. A survey of the literature reveals that almost a hundred analyses warned against the instability of several mechanism, be it bubbles, oversupply of funds, financial innovations, behaviour of financial institutions or regulation. Most observers predicted a recession, nobody a worldwide crisis. The crisis arose as all these mechanisms worked together and produced a surprise. Surprises appear to be the central elements of deep financial crises. Therefore the chances are odd for forecasting.

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  • Gunther Tichy, 2010. "War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 356-382, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:11:y:2010:i:4:p:356-382
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2010.00344.x
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