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War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?

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  • Gunther Tichy

Abstract

The Queen's question "Why did no one see it coming" provoked professional economists as well. A fierce discussion arose how to modify and improve theory and models. A survey of the literature reveals that almost a hundred analyses warned against the instability of several mechanism, be it bubbles, oversupply of funds, financial innovations, behaviour of financial institutions or regulation. Most observers predicted a recession, nobody a worldwide crisis. The crisis arose as all these mechanisms worked together and produced a surprise. Surprises appear to be the central elements of deep financial crises. Therefore the chances are odd for forecasting. Copyright 2010 die Autoren. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 2010 Verein für Socialpolitik.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2010. "War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 356-382, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:11:y:2010:i:4:p:356-382
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Grimm & Jakob Kapeller & Stephan Puehringer, 2017. "Zum Profil der deutschsprachigen Volkswirtschaftslehre: Paradigmatische Ausrichtung und politische Orientierung deutschsprachiger Oekonom_innen (On the current state of German-speaking Economics: Para," ICAE Working Papers 70, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    2. Pohl Rüdiger, 2011. "Krise überwunden – Folgeschäden bleiben," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie, De Gruyter, vol. 55(1-2), pages 5-16, October.
    3. Gunther Tichy, 2011. "Debt Crisis: Causes and Consequences," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(12), pages 797-810, December.

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