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Risk Transfer with CDOs and Systemic Risk in Banking

  • Krahnen, Jan Pieter
  • Wilde, Christian

Large banks often sell part of their loan portfolio in the form of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to investors. In this paper we raise the question whether credit asset securitization affects the cyclicality (or commonality) of bank equity values. The commonality of bank equity values reflects a major component of systemic risks in the banking market, caused by correlated defaults of loans in the banks' loan books. Our simulations take into account the major stylized fact of CDO\ transactions, the non-proportional nature of risk sharing that goes along with tranching. We provide a theoretical framework for the risk transfer through securitization that builds on a macro risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor, allowing an identification of the types of risk that the individual tranche holders bear. This allows conclusions about the risk positions of issuing banks after risk transfer. Building on the strict subordination of tranches, we first evaluate the correlation properties both within and across risk classes. We then determine the effect of securitization on the systematic risk of all tranches, and derive its effect on the issuing bank's equity beta. The simulation results show that under plausible assumptions concerning bank reinvestment behavior and capital structure choice, the issuing intermediary's systematic risk tends to rise. We discuss the implications of our findings for financial stability supervision.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5618.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5618
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  1. Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
  2. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Mark Carey & René M. Stulz, 2007. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number care06-1, December.
  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 513-548 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
  6. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Marquez, 2009. "Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/08, European University Institute.
  7. G.G. Kaufman, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk: A Taxonomy and Review," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 48, Netherlands Central Bank.
  8. Guenter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2005. "Default Risk Sharing Between Banks and Markets: The Contribution of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Working Papers 11741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
  10. Greenbaum, Stuart I. & Thakor, Anjan V., 1987. "Bank funding modes : Securitization versus deposits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-401, September.
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