IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/661.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Osowski, Thomas

Abstract

This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim is to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a country-wise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. We find moderate spillover effects of fiscal policy shocks originating in Germany and France. However, there is significant variation regarding magnitude of the spillovers among destination countries and country clusters. Furthermore, we find some evidence that spillovers generated by German or French fiscal spillovers are stronger for EMU than non-EMU countries in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 661, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:661
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/148388/1/874917484.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1999. "Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 1-47, March.
    3. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    4. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar S Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III; The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    9. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    10. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2013. "Estimating the effects of coordinated fiscal actions in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-121.
    13. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Cinzia Alcidi & Ansgar Belke & Alessandro Giovannini & Daniel Gros, 2016. "Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 345-358, July.
    16. Alejandro Ricci-Risquete & Julián Ramajo-Hernández, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union: a GVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1587-1617, June.
    17. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, July.
    18. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    19. Klaus Weyerstrass & Johannes Jaenicke & Reinhard Neck & Gottfried Haber & Bas van Aarle & Koen Schoors & Niko Gobbin & Peter Claeys, 2006. "Economic spillover and policy coordination in the Euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 246, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Ferrero, Andrea, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-10, February.
    21. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    23. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2015. "Strategic interactions of fiscal policies in Europe: A global VAR perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 49-76.
    24. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    25. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    26. Keigo Kameda, 2012. "Estimating Non- K eynesian Effects for J apan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 227-243, December.
    27. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "On the benefits of fiscal policy coordination in a currency union: a note," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 45-49, February.
    28. Selim Elekdag & Dirk V Muir, 2014. "Das Public Kapital; How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 14/227, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Bicu A.C. & Lieb L.M., 2015. "Cross-border effects of fiscal policy in the Eurozone," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    2. repec:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    4. repec:eee:poleco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:97-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alcidi, Cinzia & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "How to strengthen the European Semester?," CEPS Papers 13292, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU versus Rest of Europe; fiscal policy coordination; fiscal spillovers; GVAR analysis; regional shocks; impulse response analysis; trade weights;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.