Modelling the Global Financial Crisis
This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in an intertemporal (or DSGE) global model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that a ‘switching’ of expectations about risk premia shocks in financial markets can easily generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009 and subsequent events. The results show that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary. The best representation of the crisis may be one where initial long lasting pessimism about risk is unexpectedly revised to a more moderate scenario. This suggests a rapid recovery in countries not experiencing a balance sheet adjustment problem.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2009|
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- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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- John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 54-86, Winter/Sp.
- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Chanthapun, Waranya Pim, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 36, Asian Development Bank.
- Warwick McKibbin & Waranya Pim Chanthapun, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2009-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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