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Changes in Equity Risk Perceptions: Global Consequences and Policy Responses

  • Warwick J. McKibbin


  • David Vines


The current weakness in the global economy has generated a debate on the likely outlook for the world economy and the appropriate response for monetary policies. The world economy is currently being buffeted by a number of major shocks. A particular feature has been the large fall in equity markets in many countries. In this paper we use the MSG3 global economic model to assess the impact on the global economy of a sharp rise in the equity risk premium in a number of countries. In particular we examine whether a rise in equity risk premia (or fall in productivity which has many similar implications) is a shock to aggregate supply or aggregate demand. We explore the difference in the transmission mechanism if the shocks occur just in one country (i.e. the United States) versus across the OECD generally. We then assess the appropriate responses of monetary policy to shocks of this type and explore whether there are gains to coordinating the monetary policy responses of the G7.

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Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2003-15.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2003-15
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know About Macroeconomics That Fisher And Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409, November.
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  5. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  8. Gottfried Haber & Reinhard Neck & Warwick McKibbin, 2002. "Global Implications of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 363-379, October.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 106-37, Winter.
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