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Do political institutions yield multiple growth regimes?

  • David Coyne

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Chih-ming Tan

    ()

    (Clark University)

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen 2000) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to political institutions. We also implement a novel approach to account for theory uncertainty by applying Bayesian model averaging in the threshold regression context. We find that less democratic countries, specifically those with less competitiveness in executive recruitment, follow a different growth process than those with higher competitiveness.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1442-1454

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00325
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  1. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2009. "Structural Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 22_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
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  8. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, June.
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  11. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
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  16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  17. McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth across Countries," Scholarly Articles 3708464, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Barro, Robert J, 1996. " Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
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